Have the generalist manufacturers lost the game against the "pure players" of the electric industry?

2022-05-22 01:46:16 By : Ms. ada Guo

Would you like to receive our magazine by email every Tuesday and Friday for free?Thank you for subscribing and see you soon for your first newsletter!Who are the manufacturers that only make electric cars?Do they have a competitive advantage over generalist manufacturers?If you are a little interested in innovation and news in digital and the internet, you have probably already come across this term "pure player" (*), which designates companies born with the internet and which carry out their activity exclusively in line.This mostly concerns some e-commerce sites, but also media, like the one you are reading.A term that could now be extended to the electric car sector, since many "pure players" have emerged in recent years, starting with the best known and oldest of them all, I of course mean Tesla.Darwinian evolution having also done its job in this field, certain pure players of the digital economy have disappeared, others have prospered and a third category has evolved in an unexpected way, by opening brick-and-mortar points of sale.This is the case, for example, of Amazon or, closer to us, of Free, which now manage a network of shops to get closer to customers in “real life”.Many start-ups are also following this path by starting with digital and then extending their activity through a physical network.This is where the difference with the pure players of the electric car is made, because this pattern has little chance of reproducing itself in the sector which interests us.It's hard to imagine that one day, Tesla or Lucid would start producing… thermal vehicles.In short, from this point of view, the mass is said.The reverse, on the other hand, also seems to have been recorded, since the historic manufacturers will be forced to switch to all-electric, at least in our regions, by 2035, if of course no Satan 2 has meanwhile accelerated global warming.In other words, generalists will become pure players in, say, two decades, whether they like it or not.A bit like forcing Castorama, Carrefour or Alain Afflelou to close all their points of sale to sell only online in order to reduce their carbon footprint.Do you see the thing?And the competitive handicap compared to players born with the internet and having had three decades to get used to online marketing?By extrapolating a little, one can wonder if this scenario is not also applicable to car manufacturers.In other words, if Tesla and company haven't taken an irretrievable lead – and advantage – in terms of electric propulsion.Some think so, but I am not one of them.Because, if the VWs, BMWs and other Renaults and Peugeots struggle a little to match the know-how of a Tesla in terms of efficiency in particular, and finally of the quality/price ratio, they have for them an invaluable know-how in everything about the rest, namely the manufacture of well-finished, robust cars with polished designs that still provide a semblance of emotion to their owners.And above all, they generally have significant resources, even if their market valuation is lower than that of some pure players.This is also the whole paradox of this market, which can quickly be illustrated by a few rather symbolic figures: Tesla's stock market value reached a historic peak of more than 1,000 billion dollars at the end of 2021 to fall back to around of 900 billion at the time of writing these lines, for a turnover of 55.8 billion dollars in 2021. For comparison, the stock market value of the VW group is 109 billion (yes, almost 10 times less) for a 2021 turnover of 247 billion (yes, almost 5 times more).The mistake ?Is there really one?Not sure.By betting on Tesla, investors are betting on the future – the future is always better than the past – and faith in gigantic long-term profits.And also, in a more intangible way, on the idea of ​​being part of history, of a history being written, which is always good for the ego.This part of the irrational is part of the same process as that of all digital and internet start-ups that have become giants.Remember that Amazon was in deficit for nearly 10 years before becoming a cash machine, and that analysts regularly predicted its bankruptcy.Does this remind you of something ?Come on, another little example for the road.The market capitalization of Lucid Motors is 47 billion, after reaching 90 billion at the end of 2021, almost that of the VW group.Without having sold a single car yet, or barely.Figures that some may consider delusional, but which show the confidence of the markets in the ability to innovate, invent – ​​and perhaps – make consumers dream of the future and potential electromobilists.Figures that also confirm that anything labeled “tech” attracts big capital more easily than what still looks like a traditional industry.Some digital entrepreneurs know this, and play on it: “To raise funds, it is sometimes better to come without a business plan, but with a “vision” and a certain gift for making people dream”.Are these astronomical sums correlated with industrial know-how?In other words, does being a pure player with a well-stocked wallet guarantee the production of better electric cars?When it comes to efficiency, if we refer to what Tesla offers, we would be tempted to answer yes.But the same Tesla has long been criticized for the build quality and finish of its cars.The counter-example would also come from Le Matin calme with Kia and Hyundai, which show that they are capable of making excellent electric cars, often acclaimed by their customers, with excellent autonomy and sometimes better efficiency than those of the American manufacturer, as shown by the Hyundai Kona for example.Not to mention the 800-volt architecture of the Kia EV6 and the Hyundai Ioniq 5, a point on which these two generalist and “historic” brands have even surpassed Tesla.While offering very well-equipped cars, with a bold design and a neat finish.Which makes us say that the case is far from over for historical builders.First of all because they are no longer stupid and they understand where their interests lie.And above all because they have the know-how, the network, and all the same the solid back, with a lot of cash in the bank (which is sometimes better than a high valuation on the stock market).Of course, they will never benefit from this somewhat sexy advantage of being pure players, but they have already proven that they are capable of reinventing themselves and innovating in their own way, by adapting to the new situation.Most observers, and customers, which is the most important, agree that some models that have recently arrived on the market are quite successful, and have little to envy to Uncle Elon's cars.This is the case with the Kia EV6, a real commercial and critical success, but also less exposed models such as the Fiat 500e or, in another register, the Porsche Taycan, which was far from being won for the latter when we know its positioning and the attachment of the brand's customers to a certain tradition.Three examples among others which demonstrate that traditional manufacturers have a bit under their feet, and that they can tickle pure players on their ground, which is ultimately good news.Finally, to propose an offer benefiting from both the advantages of historical experience and that of innovation, perhaps the generalist manufacturers should draw inspiration from what Toyota had done in their time with Lexus, Nissan with Infiniti, or even Citroën with DS: creating a brand apart that is 100% electric.In other words, a pure player with experience.The best of both worlds, right?(*) Sorry for those who are definitely allergic to anglicisms, sometimes we have no choice, because a relevant equivalent does not exist in FrenchConfigure your vehicle Have the generalist manufacturers lost out against the “pure players” of electric vehicles?or request a free trial.It always makes me laugh the articles where we compare the stock market valuation and the turnover while forgetting everything else!What level of debt?What free cash flow?What margins (gross, operating etc) and what does this mean?A hint: look at the Altman z-score of each of these companies and that of Tesla.You will understand.Another thing, to say that these manufacturers “know how to make cars” is at best ignorance, at worst misinformation.See the videos of Sandy Munro on the matter, expert of the automotive experts.These traditional (legacy) manufacturers only know how to make classic vehicles, a bit like Ericsson or Nokia when the iPhone was released.What counts today is not only the efficiency of the engine, the drive train, the batteries etc.but above all, the quality of the software: they are computers on wheels!And there the advance is counted in years, more than 5 and rather 8. See what is happening in China: Audis, Porsches, BMWs and Mercedes do not sell because "those who knew how to make cars" look like dinosaurs in a virtual reality show, they are just overrated extras.The Chinese find them obsolete, totally outdated and in all respects inferior to the Chinese productions of the NIO Xpeng BYD etc.and obviously, to Tesla carving out the lion's share of a market very proud of its identity and reluctant to buy American unless specs dominate the rest head and shoulders.Which is clearly the case.Do not mix the manufacturer with its distribution network.There is already a lot of possibility to configure and buy cars online, except that the finalization is done at the garage where the vehicle will be delivered.There is not much missing for this stage to also become virtual.But many people like to have an interlocutor in the pulpit, so I don't know if this represents an advantage or a handicap for the manufacturers: is the cost of the sales network a burden, or rather an essential sales force? ?And doesn't the habit of advocating expensive overhauls risk becoming a foil?What is certain is that the electric motorization allows much more freedom of design than the combustion engine, and that a vehicle which is not originally designed for electricity loses a lot of advantages in terms of livability and efficiency, so it gives an undeniable advantage for those who only drive electric.And that can currently be seen on the Teslas with the frunk, the absence of a tunnel at the rear, the industrialization around the battery which makes it possible to lower costs, the GPS completely enslaved to the specific needs of recharging (location of terminals, choice of the shortest route, battery preheating, etc.).In short, by wanting to do everything, they earn little money on their electrics, which are not up to par and they are simply bad: just compare the interior space of an e-208 with a Zoe or an i3 to realize the handicap represented by multi-energy platforms.Let's not forget that Tesla does not currently manufacture any vehicle in Europe, if the economic war intensifies with China and the United States and especially if CO2 taxes appear on products imported into the EU, traditional manufacturers will find a decisive advantage, finally another important aspect is not mentioned in this article, it is the dependence of "traditional" manufacturers on equipment manufacturers for electronics, they will have to acquire in-house skills to create value and master their supply of components“I like our strategy, I like it a lot.iPhone is not a great email machine, because it doesn't have a keyboard”.Steve Ballmer, Microsoft, on its Windows Mobile range…With each energy change, the makers were swept away and replaced.The manufacturers of the most beautiful carriages have disappeared in the face of the manufacturers of steam cars.Themselves have been replaced by gasoline car manufacturers.Today it's their turn.Mercedes, Renault, Ford, and the others all started with gasoline cars.Each time the same thing happened, they built vehicles of the new energy as they built those of the old.Except that the new type of propulsion allows and obliges to completely rethink the architecture of the vehicle.At that point, you need creativity, inventiveness.A gasoline car is not just a cart with an engine.The same is true for the VE.We already feel it with the latest VEs.Modularity is completely new, for example.The battery takes up space and the chassis is designed around it.We can then mold a half-chassis.The productivity gain is colossal.If you make an old-fashioned car by putting the battery in place of the tank, it's dead.I am a KIA customer, electric.They are indeed the least bad of the "traditional" manufacturers.My Tesla is awaiting delivery.Why :I tested the Ioniq 5. Not the EV6.However, I noticed an execrable consumption and a finish much lower than that of the current generation.No desire to stay.And, indeed, they are the least bad of the traditional builders.Then if we are interested in the technology of motors or batteries, we notice 2 logics.A focus on innovation and optimization, and another on cost minimization.No need to specify who is who, right?“Finally, to propose an offer benefiting from both the advantages of historical experience and that of innovation, perhaps the generalist manufacturers should take inspiration from what Toyota had done in their time with Lexus, Nissan with Infiniti, or even Citroën with DS: creating a 100% electric brand apart.Isn't that exactly what Hyundai did when it created its new IONIQ brand?What worries me for Renault and Stellantis is the harmful influence of Total which pushes to invest in hydrogen.They lost several battles that's for sure!Already make believe with this avalanche of fake news made on the VE.It's hard today not to get caught in the but in the bag.Some people left more than one arm there.Then, the actions of stupid scuttling to prevent networks of charging stations from taking hold turns on the historical manufacturers who are now forced to drive on its mining roads.Worse still, having finally understood the situation, some have missed their conversion and are unable to technically follow the advance either of the leader Tesla or the flow of Chinese vehicles already ready for battle.So when we see a group like Stellantis refusing to fight the battle, it's not going to make a fold, there will be damage.Now Tesla will continue to pour its stream of Model 3 and Y with its two additional factories in Texas and Berlin, not to mention the expansion of Shanghai.Mass is said effectively and definitively.The Chinese will end up finishing off the recalcitrant and the few survivors will no longer find their splendor of the 20th century.What will save the “historic” (at least in France) is the second-hand market: More than 3 occasions were sold for 1 new vehicle in 2021. This cushion allows them to maintain a network of dealerships and garages, and therefore to maintain contact with the population.This population is aging more and more, and even if young people will be nurtured by new technologies, gaining wisdom with age (even if Brassens says "when you're stupid, you're stupid"), they will understand that the virtual has reached its limits and that the return to close relationships is essential!Moreover, even Teslafans know very well that the number of Service Centers will quickly reach its limits and that, with the aging of vehicles, doing 250 terminals for an overhaul or repair will quickly complicate things (personally I crazy, the SC is 30 terminals from my house).All this to say that humanity is gregarious and needs to get back to basics for its balance...This thread is long and boring, we push open doors in addition to the bad ones, nothing to add.To add: The debt of the builders….For me, creating a brand dedicated to EVs is not strategic.Moreover, some time ago Hyundai had mentioned the idea of ​​creating a brand dedicated to EVs, the Ioniq brand, but in the end they remained on the principle of the Ioniq range internal to Hyundai.this choice allows them to develop a range of EVs at Hyundai + Kia and ultimately double the number of EV models based on the same investment.Moreover, the VAG and Stellantis groups have adopted this same strategy and thus optimize a common EV platform for all their brands, it is much more interesting.Generally the customer remains attached to a brand so will stay at Seat or VW or at Peugeot or Opel, if a new brand were to be created it is not said that these customers would change for a new "exotic" brand in their eyesI do not agree with Alain Afflelou who should close, it is imperative to try the frames.My kona I bought it without even trying it, but not my glasses at Afflelou precisely.Yeah … A long article not to say muchAn irrecoverable delay does not exist.And not everyone wants to ride in tesla fortunatelyAs for the end of the thermal in 2035, it's already starting to get ugly, I'm sure this deadline will go back or simply disappear.“Have the generalist manufacturers lost the game against the “pure players” of electricity?"Nope.As for the product: it's not rocket science to replace a combustion engine with an electric one.For their sales system and they have to adapt;they know that.We can very well think of an online/physical mixing system.“Who are the manufacturers that only make electric cars?Tomorrow a “historically thermal” group can create a 100% electric brand and sell it remotely.If it's just a matter of name, of legal assembly, they know how to do it.And for their thermal marks they do what they want with a whole bunch of parameters.Then it's a story of restructuring as they say, which will take place anyway.Do they have a competitive advantage over generalist manufacturers?Yes in the sense that the younger generations are used to shopping online.But… to sell a product you need at least sales people who make offers.All manufacturers have them, in physical contact or online, therefore sellers;or no contact with the customer at all.The question is rather there: no contact, physical contact, online contact?Otherwise there are also agents.And then point of maintenance / repair of the brand or not?Small typo in your article: "if of course no Satan 2 has meanwhile accelerated global warming"It would rather be a (consequent and brutal) cooling.The paradox is that those who are dragging their feet a bit to move towards EVs (like Stellantis) are making record profits in 2021. Renault, which has taken a more pronounced turn, is doing less well.When will this reverse?Automobile Propre is a community information site dedicated to everything related to cars and the environment.The most popular themes of our auto blog are electric cars and hybrids, but we also cover CNG / LPG cars, hydrogen cars, political and environmental aspects related to cars.Internet users are invited to react to blog articles in the comments, but also in the various forums that are made available to them.The most popular of them is certainly the electric car forum which centralizes discussions relating to the arrival of these new vehicles.A glossary centralizes the definitions of the main technical words used on the blog, while a database of cars (marketed or not) lists electric and hybrid cars.Electric vehicle guide